The Oil Drum: Canada

Speculative bubbles and the realization of risk:

Bubbles Brewing in Shanghai, Tokyo, and London

There is a bubble growing. Investors should be concerned about the risks, said Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of Chinas National Peoples Congress in a January 31st interview with the Financial Times. But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice, Cheng warned.

In what might develop into the third biggest stock market bubble in history, ranked alongside Japans Nikkei-225 of 1986-89, and the Nasdaqs 1999-2000 bull run, the Shanghai Composite A share Index, restricted mainly to Chinese nationals, has posted a 140% gain over the past 12-months, after soaring 46% in the fourth-quarter of 2006 alone. And without deliberate market intervention, the A-share market could inflate into a Nasdaq-like bubble.

China Stocks Post Biggest Drop in Decade

Chinese stocks plunged nearly 9 percent Tuesday, their biggest drop in a decade, rattling markets from Hong Kong and Singapore to as far away as New York amid concerns over a possible slowdown in China's economy.
Investors were also spooked by comments Monday from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said a recession in the U.S. was "possible" later this year.

One day after sending Shanghai's benchmark index to a record, investors dumped stocks to lock in profits amid speculation about a fresh round of austerity measures from Beijing to slow the nation's sizzling economy. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.8 percent to close at 2,771.79, its largest decline since it fell 8.9 percent on Feb. 18, 1997, following the death of Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping.

Stocks Have Worst Day Since 9/11 Attacks

Stocks had their worst day of trading since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks Tuesday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 400 points on a worldwide tide of concern that the U.S. and Chinese economies are stumbling and that share prices have become overinflated.
The steepness of the market's drop, as well as its global breadth, signaled a possible correction after a long period of stable and steadily rising stock markets that had not been shaken by such a volatile day of trading in several years.

Not just the top 10 best prepared as we discussed yesterday, but now from sustainlane, a measurement scheme ranking the 50 biggest US cities' preparedness for an oil crisis.  Here's some snippets:

This is a Tale of Two Types of Cities.  One type of city has a dense, walkable center with cultural attractions, jobs, farmers markets, and residential neighborhoods easily accessible by foot, bike, or public transit. The other type has lower density, a poorly or undefined center, separate centers of business and residential life, and is generally only accessible by car.

We compared these two fundamental types of cities' underlying infrastructure, food and mobility as part of an economic competitiveness analysis.  With gas prices on the rise and $3 or $4 a gallon gas on the horizon, SustainLane.com took a close look at the 50 largest U.S. cities to see which are most prepared and which are most vulnerable to an extended gas price shock in the $3 to $8 dollar a gallon range. Those cities that can reduce or stabilize their spending on gasoline will keep substantially more money in their state's economy, rather than siphoning it overseas.

[editor's note, by Yankee] In this post, peakguy analyzes NYC in relationship to the recent Sustainlane ranking for cities that are best prepared to handle a $100+ tank of gas. We invite commenters to take a look at the original survey and comment on how Sustainlane's criteria will play out in their own cities and towns.

Last week, Sustainlane ranked NYC the #1 place to live in an Oil Crisis:

New York City is the city most prepared to cope with a $100+ tank of gas. With its strong city and regional public transportation system, New York stands out above the rest. From New York City's subways to the Tri State area's suburban train lines, New York is truly the only American city where people are committed to riding over driving.

"As the largest city in the country and the business capital of the world New York City must be prepared for what comes our way, and we are," said Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. "That New York City has been recognized by SustainLane as the best prepared city to face a nation-wide oil crisis is testament to the resiliency and strength of our infrastructure."

It goes on to highlights many of the ways that cities can be redesigned to be less dependent on automobiles for everyday transportation needs. But I have to point out a few issues not included in their analysis.

Let me just say that neither Bloomberg nor any other news outfit should use the word "peak" in a headline unless they're talking about peak oil. My hopes for MSM interest in PO were sparked by this headline:

EnCana, Canada Oil Shares Fall as Investors Bet Oil Has Peaked

Alas, the article has nothing to do with PO. What they mean is that oil prices have peaked.

Still the article was rather interesting. As oil prices were steeply rising earlier this year, EnCana and Suncor were raking it in on the stock market. However, now there's a perception that the tide is turning, and that oil prices are going to drop. This is hurting EnCana and Suncor on the stock market.

How do they know the tide is turning?