The Oil Drum: Canada

Speculative bubbles and the realization of risk:

Bubbles Brewing in Shanghai, Tokyo, and London

There is a bubble growing. Investors should be concerned about the risks, said Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of Chinas National Peoples Congress in a January 31st interview with the Financial Times. But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice, Cheng warned.

In what might develop into the third biggest stock market bubble in history, ranked alongside Japans Nikkei-225 of 1986-89, and the Nasdaqs 1999-2000 bull run, the Shanghai Composite A share Index, restricted mainly to Chinese nationals, has posted a 140% gain over the past 12-months, after soaring 46% in the fourth-quarter of 2006 alone. And without deliberate market intervention, the A-share market could inflate into a Nasdaq-like bubble.

China Stocks Post Biggest Drop in Decade

Chinese stocks plunged nearly 9 percent Tuesday, their biggest drop in a decade, rattling markets from Hong Kong and Singapore to as far away as New York amid concerns over a possible slowdown in China's economy.
Investors were also spooked by comments Monday from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said a recession in the U.S. was "possible" later this year.

One day after sending Shanghai's benchmark index to a record, investors dumped stocks to lock in profits amid speculation about a fresh round of austerity measures from Beijing to slow the nation's sizzling economy. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.8 percent to close at 2,771.79, its largest decline since it fell 8.9 percent on Feb. 18, 1997, following the death of Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping.

Stocks Have Worst Day Since 9/11 Attacks

Stocks had their worst day of trading since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks Tuesday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 400 points on a worldwide tide of concern that the U.S. and Chinese economies are stumbling and that share prices have become overinflated.
The steepness of the market's drop, as well as its global breadth, signaled a possible correction after a long period of stable and steadily rising stock markets that had not been shaken by such a volatile day of trading in several years.

Well, let's see I have put on the helmet, the breast plate, the greaves and all that stuff, and so perhaps I might be armored enough to tip-toe into the debate about oil sands and oil shale. Tonight will be oil sand, if I survive and recover, then (after reading a few more scientific papers) I will tackle oil shale.

Just recently there has been increasing attention paid to the heavy oil sands of Alberta. Perhaps, as in the case of the Washington Post more negative than positive. And it is interesting to note, from the tone of those pieces, that it is now apparently more desirable to have your rivers flow over and through tarry sand, than to have the sand cleaned and replaced, along with the river. But it is not that argument that I would follow, but rather, OGJ having come out with a Supplement on Canadian Oil and Gas, to briefly comment on one or two of the features of that report. (Which apparently will take a while before it appears in the electronic version of the magazine).

Did anyone else happen to catch the 60 Minutes piece on the Alberta oil sands? What most struck me about it is that the situation in Alberta seems to be a microcosm of many problems we've discussed with respect to peak oil. Namely:

1. The technology required to mine the sands and convert it into refined oil is expensive and the whole operation has a fairly low EROEI.
2. Lack of appropriately trained labor force, coupled with the fact that Fort McMurray, Alberta is not a particularly desirable place to live
3. Environmental disaster (although at least Canadian law says requires that old mines are refilled and trees are replanted)
4. Geopolitical factors: Namely, China is in a desperate competition with the US for these resources, and politicians are suggesting that Canada should use the oil sands to gain leverage in their trade disputes with the US
There's more… (0 words) | 83 comments | | Permalink | Without comments