The Oil Drum: Canada

Will the Fed cut interest rates to alleviate the developing credit crunch, and will it have the desired effect if they do? Can lowering the cost of credit overcome risk aversion and the fear of cascading default? If not then the Fed will not be able to prevent the contraction of the money supply and the spread of contagion amid a sea of margin calls.

In Canada, oil sands fever continues unabated and a drilling frenzy may be shaping up in the Arctic. One political leader urges the defence of sovereignty in the Arctic, while another holds talks on North American Union well away from the public eye. In Ontario, businesses are paid not to consume power.

On the climate front, northern infrastructure faces a serious challenge as melting permafrost undermines it's foundations, while Australia experiences a 1000 year drought.

Finally, we remember that 62 years ago, the world was waking up to the beginning of the nuclear weapons age.

Mortgage Maze May Increase Foreclosures

And the very innovation that made mortgages so easily available — an assembly line process known on Wall Street as securitization — is creating an obstacle for troubled borrowers. As they try to restructure their loans, they are often thwarted, lawyers say, by strict protections put in place for investors who bought the mortgage pools.

This impasse could exacerbate the housing slump, pushing more homeowners into foreclosure. That would lead to a bigger glut of properties for sale, depressing home prices further.

“Securitization led to this explosion of bad loans, and now it is harder to unwind and modify them even where it is in the best interests of both the borrower and the investors,” Kurt Eggert, an associate professor at the Chapman University School of Law in Orange, Calif., said in an interview. “The thing that caused the problem is making it harder to solve the problem.”

Creating difficulties is the complex design of mortgage securities.

The following applies not just to housing, but in many ways to credit bubbles in general. IMO we should expect to see graphs like the one below across a wide range of asset classes in the not too distant future.

Houses Should Not Be a Commodity

There are technical reasons for a market crash (foreclosures, credit tightening, etc.) and I have discussed those in great detail in earlier analysis posts; however, market psychology plays a large roll in how and why it all plays out. The technical factors cause shifts in psychology among the market participants which exacerbate market moves. Today I will examine the psychology of market bubbles drawing parallels between the commodity futures market and the real estate market. In this post want to clearly illustrate how and why the psychology of market participants will facilitate the ongoing price crash.