The Oil Drum: Canada

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. 

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 14 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. This post is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari who passed away last October.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 13 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 13 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

Executive Summary:

1. Broad revision (from 1980 to 2004) by the EIA this month but not significant in amplitude.
2. Monthly production peaks are unchanged: 
1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd ( 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is  84.28 mbpd ( 0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.
2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd ( 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is  81.20 mbpd ( 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd ( 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd ( 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
4. NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd ( 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is  7.97 mbpd ( 0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
3. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: June 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 72.82 mbpd compared to 73.11 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago.
4. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above)  is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 12 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2009 and 2011 at 78.23 - 87.12 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

Executive Summary:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged except for NGPL: 
1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.43 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2007 (2 months) is  84.26 mbpd, up 0.2 mbpd from 2006.
2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is  81.24 mbpd, down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 73.09 mbpd, down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
4. NGPL: the peak date is now February 2007 at 8.24 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is  8.15 mbpd, up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
2. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: February 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.35 mbpd compared to 73.47 mbpd one year ago.
3. New forecasts added: Projections from Frederik Robelius and the Hybrid Shock Model.
4. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 12 different projections is showing a kind of production plateau around 83 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.

Une revue des dernières estimations de la production mondiale de pétrole publiées mensuellement par l'EIA (Agence Américaine de l'Énergie) ainsi qu'une revue, non exhaustive, de différents modèles et prévisions sur la production future.

Fig 1.- Production mondiale mensuelle (EIA mensuelle) pour pétrole brut + NGL. Le modèle médian est calculé à partir de la médiane des 9 modèles qui prévoient un pic avant 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets,  Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45]). Cliquez pour agrandir.

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 9 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets,  Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45]). Click to Enlarge.

Executive Summary:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged: 
1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is  84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.
2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is  81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is  7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
2. No major revisions on the previous monthly estimates in this month release. 
3. Weak growth continues: November 2006 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.41 mbpd compared to 74.11 mbpd one year ago.

A French version is also available on TOD:Canada here

Une revue des dernières estimations de la production mondiale de pétrole publiées mensuellement par l'EIA (Agence Américaine de l'Énergie) ainsi qu'une revue, non exhaustive, de différents modèles et prévisions sur la production future.

Fig 1.- Production mondiale mensuelle (EIA mensuelle) et différentes prédictions (2001-2027). Cliquez pour agrandir.

Quoi de neuf?

• Michael Smith, Energy Institute (Monde, CO+NGL, 2006)
• Michael Smith, (Arabie Saoudite, 2006)

An update on the last production numbers from the EIA along with different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027). Click to Enlarge.

What's new:

• Michael Smith from the Energy Institute (World, CO+NGL, 2006)
• Michael Smith (Saudi Arabia, 2006)

A French version is also available on TOD:Canada here.

A pdf version of this article is available here.

Une revue des dernières estimations de la production mondiale de pétrole publiées mensuellement par l'EIA (Agence Américaine de l'Énergie) ainsi qu'une revue, non exhaustive, de différents modèles et prévisions sur la production future.

Fig 1.- Production mondiale mensuelle (EIA mensuelle) et différentes prédictions (2001-2027). Cliquez pour aggrandir.

Quoi de neuf?

• Prédictions de l'IEA (World Energy Outlook, 2006)
• Prédictions de l'IEA (World Energy Outlook, 2006)
• Prédictions de l'IEA pour (World Energy Outlook, 2006)
• Prédictions pour l'Arabie Saoudite

An update on the last production numbers from the EIA along with different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027). Click to Enlarge.

What's new:

• IEA forecast (World Energy Outlook, 2006)
• IEA forecast (World Energy Outlook, 2005)
• IEA forecast (World Energy Outlook, 2004)
• Forecasts for Saudi Arabia