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55 comments on Predictions for Canada’s Natural Gas Production
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All you have to do is read Mary's columns from T&T and one can see the writing on the wall. T&T is planning for a peak gas production market. They know it won't last. So for us to put more and more eggs into that basket is not wise either.
My point about LNG in N. America is that it is going to assert more and more global pricing on the domestic supply. If there are domestic production shortfalls, the price will have to increase to be equal to LNG or else the imports will not come to port as recent events have shown.
How can you expect to pay $10/Mbtu for LNG when other countries will pay $19/Mbtu? The domestic retail supply price will have to rise to pay for the blended rate. The math isn't that hard.
The other major concern are those utilities that are counting on LNG for future energy supply (i.e. Puget Sound Energy). Call me simplistic, but I see the risks of this plan are magnitudes greater than counting on domestic supply.
Have you a link to 'Mary from T & T?'
Who she? :-)
I used to know a Jane from S&M if you want a link.
So that is why your credit card is maxed out!
I've been trying to find her op-eds. IIRC, she was a minister in the government and I seem to remember her as Mary. I think 06-Aug-07 TOD link to
http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=161186318
doesn't come up because the paper only makes the last 30 days available.
Or, I could just call her "the Lady in the hat".
Dave, taking up Ebonics? "Who she?"
When I lived in the States for a while, the only people I could actually understand were African Americans, as I lived previously in an area of England with many Jamaicans!
They played pool like me as well, as I come form a snooker playing nation just like Canada so stitch shots are natural - I nearly got a pool cue across the head playing those against the red-necks!
There is a difference in LNG prices. One can contract for firm capacity at a fixed price (more or less) or one can buy cargos on the spot market. One would expect firm capacity to be cheaper most of the time since it reduces the commercial risk or at least shares it between producer and consumer.
Internally, LNG can supply only the peak loads at prime prices. That's why to current US terminals sat under-utilitized for years while production and delivery costs were under the annual AVERAGE price.
I will agree that long-term, prices will seek equalibrium over the globe corrected for transport costs. Price for LNG will also tend to track petroleum product prices too with less of a premium for oil than in the past.
So why and how would Gazprom and its mostly Siberia LNG be competitive landed in Quebec? Does that presuppose global warming and an open Northwest Passage or would they ship via the Gulf of Finland?