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55 comments on Predictions for Canada’s Natural Gas Production
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I am not sure whether Hubbert peak applies as much to natural gas. In the US, we have seen more of flat production for many years, followed by a fall off of conventional, and rise of unconventional. It seems like the situation may be more complex, but I agree it doesn't look good.
Regarding NAFTA, I think there was talk earlier in the US election cycle of renegotiating NAFTA, if one of the Democratic candidates win. It seems like there could also be pressure from Canada in this regard. A NAFTA renegotiation would almost certainly come out better for Canada. The change may not be fast though. If Canada is to keep more of its production, it would seem like it would need more west-east pipelines, and this could take several years to build.
Hubbert was quite far off with his NG predictions in the US. In this case at least the peak has already happened wrt conventional NG.
There are definitely a lot of different forces acting on NG production. The Mackenzie Valley pipeline won't happen any time soon since Imperial Oil seems to want a lot of subsidies to build the pipeline. In any case, we're going to start importing LNG well before the pipeline will be built and I think LNG imports will also come at the expense of some unconventional production.
As far as NAFTA is concerned, it's just not discussed a lot in the Canadian news (other than when Obama/Clinton made those comments). I'd be surprised if this actually is a priority for Obama if he wins. Maybe if the proportionality agreement stays, this could also influence more LNG imports at the expense of unconventional NG, since the LNG imports wouldn't count towards Canadian production.
In the US, at least among populists, NAFTA is the favorite whipping boy for structural changes to the economy which have been tough on the lower and middle classes. I would be surprised if 1% of the opponents have any inkling of the requirements put on Canadian, and Mexican energy, and the fact that these could be sacrificed by renegotiation. I doubt any national politician, after being informed about the issue will pursue renegotiation.