 | The Energy and Environment Round-Up: November 6th 2007 | The Oil Drum: Canada | Energy Decline and National GDP in 2050: The Growth of Destitution |  |
209 comments on World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
User login
Archives
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
About the hydro, hey I'm trying to be optimistic here! You may be right, and that's one of the reasons I have the hydro curve flattening out over time.
About North Africa - anything is possible: "Predictions are hard, especially about the future." Solar PV and thermal will play a role somewhere, but if I had to bet I wouldn't bet on North Africa, unless Europe decides to fund it. And in that case I'd bet it would end up benefiting Europe a whole lot more than North Africa.
Actually hydro generation in US and in many other places has recently been falling.
Many factors affecting it - climate change, increased water demands for irrigation and by the population, everything adds up and the trend is negative. I can hardly see these factors reversing, quite the opposite actually.
Expecting hydro to raise its share world-wide is obviously assuming a massive program in the third world. How realistic this is I leave up to you to decide.
Unfortunately I have to conclude your optimism is quite crossing the borders of scientific realism. Same goes for wind - expecting it to surpass both hydro and nuclear based on a track record of 5 years, emerging from virtually non-existent source is... maybe way too much.
I'll let you and Pitt duke it out over the global prospects of hydro, and you and Nick can hash out the potential of wind while you're at it. For now I'm content to split the difference and disappoint both sides.
Significant hydro development may be confined to China and Canada, but I'd bet South America and Russia will put on a push as well. Regarding wind and solar, ¿Quién sabe?
No need for duking - we're gathering evidence, not disagreeing.
LevinK is pointing out that hydro production is falling in some places, although - as your graph shows - it's still growing overall and is currently at its highest level ever. I'm pointing out that substantial hydro potential still exists, even in some developed countries. No conflict.