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10 comments on The Finance Round-Up: October 23rd 2007
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Despite the lack of participation, these summaries have been very helpful.
It can easily be interpreted as an accentuation point on the true intentions of many posts that while technical in nature are simply a thin veil of the real political or profit intent.
They will soon find out that macro economical issues will drive technical issues one way or the other.
Thanks Musashi. Participation improves when we get on the front page, but as these posts are financial rather than directly energy-related, they are probably considered rather tangential to the purpose of the site.
My own view is that the fate of the casino economy will directly determine much of what happens in other spheres, and in a far shorter time frame than most people are planning on for being prepared to deal with any kind of upheaval. IMO this is a slow motion train wreck and it's already been going on almost all year.
People are already thinking the events of August are safely behind them, and my aim here is to point out that things continue to unravel largely away from the public gaze. There is a huge amount of frantic activity going on beneath the surface as bankers try to stave off the day when all these toxic assets are marked to market (by trying to sell them to themselves at inflated prices for instance).
We are pretty much in agreement.
I certainly agree that most of the hard data on GW and PO is correct to the extent that it is substantiated from multiple sources in Europe and Asia, but they are not what will hit first.
One issue isn't more or less important then the others, they all are important, but the issue that hits first rearranges the playing field for the others. It does make some sense and see how the cookie crumbles before fully committing major resources to something unlikely to be realized other then on a personal level.
The US certainly has much of the technical expertise as far as finding solutions but there is very little political or ethical credibility. The only credible parties are the ones doing their own thing with their own resources. Even if they turn out to be wrong, at least they are honest.
Hi Stoneleigh and musashi,
musashi, your mention of macro economical issues suggested to me the idea of micro economical issues. Just today a micro event occurred today in my front yard. We had just taken out out old stove after putting in a replacement and a man in a truck stopped and came up and asked that if I didn't want it could he take it away. Okay. A few months earlier another came up and asked about an old car we had driven to death. Okay. We have been here for 8 years and never had any requests like these before. It leads me to think that maybe there are micro indicators of what is happening in the overall economy so just now I did a quick google and came up with the following two articles. I wonder if an interesting indicator how the winds are blowing could be found in odd or small news, like in these articles?
It has been my opinion that collapse of the economy will occur without any clear consensus that we are past peak oil. I check this channel first every day as I think the economical is going to be the the righteous one, as everything from PO politics and global warming end up affecting the financial, the beast that bakes the daily bread.
Stoneleigh, after being quite involved with the dot com meltdown I can readily see how fast things can happen particularly if one isn't watching for them so it is important to have access to all the things you put on your site.
Stoneleigh - in case you missed it beachboy did a great job of outlining the connecting, or should I say leading aspect of economic/financial matters to PO
http://peaktimeviews.blogspot.com/2007/10/realistic-view-of-internationa...
from his post at TOD;
"Basically I show that a loose monetary policy from the Fed can bring about a short term scenario for the US that looks exactly like the doom kind of scenarios forecasted after PO, independently from how long away the physical global Hubbert's Peak may be. And that is because that scenario is "Peak Oil now" for the US only, not because of the peaking and subsequent decline of world oil production, but because of the peaking and hard decline of the US' purchasing power for oil (and everything else), brought about by the loss of value of its currency."
A very good read IMO