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434 comments on World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100
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This sort of what I was referring to when I wrote about rich individuals and nations reallocating their discretionary spending towards the purchase of energy (or other essentials such as food). The problem is with the nations and individuals who don't have the discretionary spending power. The current economic system gives them virtually no chance. There is no mechanism for the just distribution of wealth, and those who presently hold it are not likely to opt for one.
The middle class will tighten their belts, but it won't keep the Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Africans, South East Asians and South Americans from falling into the abyss.
It's a nice dream, but the future reality is much more likely to involve a widening of the gulf of inequity rather than its narrowing.
Good point Glider Guider. I do find it fortunate that the US is an oil importing country. We have the most fat that can be reallocated to preparing for the future and we will be forced to face reality faster than if we were a net exporter. Because the net export model suggests that our imports will decline much faster than actual depletion, we will have the incentive and technology to improve efficiency while many poor exporting countries avoid collapse. The US/Europe still has the excess capital to improve our infrastructure and the incentive to encourage leapfrogging to avoid global warming and keep the costs of fossil fuels down. Making this happen is our responsibility as citizens.
Does anyone have any information on the effect the Iraq war had on American oil supplies? If it decreased oil supply and was a failure on that front (which I think it was) there will be less incentive to repeat the debacle. War is very oil intensive; I'm sure we've burned more than we've gotten, but I have no data to back that up. Any references would be most appreciated.
Very well written/thought out article. I repeat your plea to reject fatalism. We must not let perfection be the enemy of good. Any action to reduce overshoot must be pursued, perhaps a cost analyses of effective overshoot reduction strategies might be in order? And not just of energy supplies; all limiting factors (food, land, water etc). Perhaps some guest posts?
Thanks
Any solution to peak oil, global warming and poverty will depend on wide or universal access to contraception.