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Souperman,
To put it diplomatically: I find it worthwhile to consider your view. It is however, not open to discussion.
There is one possible view only: the folks at the Fed are really smart people who time and again unfortunately either make really stupid mistakes or are overwhelmed by "unforeseeable" events.
But whatever happens, all that time they are trying tirelessly to protect and enhance the welfare of every single US citizen, of all the poor huddled masses.
Whenever a crash does happen, that's an accident. By default. Unforeseeable. The implied message is that it would be much worse without the heroic selfless efforts of the super banker boys.
Likewise, the Fed's main task is to preserve the value of the dollar. Which today is worth some 2.5% of what it was 90 years ago?!
Again, this is despite the grand efforts of the Fed masters. Apparently, not even absolute control over the money supply of the world's biggest economy is good enough for control over the value of that money. But make no mistake: it would all be much worse without the Fed's self-sacrificial superbrains.
There must be some real dark forces at work that the Fed is battling so bravely and forever losing to. But we mortals cannot see those forces.
You know, it's all fine by me, but what I have trouble with is the lack of intellectual effort that comes with all this. Everything else goes through academic scrutiny, but this is not to be discussed.
Thank you for responding Ilargi, CrystalRadio – Precisely. It is not discussed therefore what are the chances for positive change?
We are relegated to discussing the developing (deteriorating) situation using the various historically accepted economic theories only. Which fall well short IMO.
To put it bluntly - Its all just mental masturbation! (Perhaps thats why we grow hair on our head instead of our palms?)
Again, I apologize but I find that I have been deluding myself by believing that we would experience a large catabolic event, it would be a bit painful but then we would roll up our sleeves and get to work rebuilding a better world.
I no longer have the luxury of believing that it will go down this way.
I now believe it will either be the long, slow squeeze of rich get richer, everyone else eats feces, or… the long, painful, violent, turbulent, toxic, decent into hell.
I am not ready to accept the second possibility and I don’t expect I ever will but I am preparing myself and my family for the first. I just wish I new more in terms of what is really going down.
Don’t worry I’ll be fine after a shot of sarconol, branch water back.
Hi Souperman2,
IMO there isn't going to be a nice simple slow steady descent but a slow start then a quickly accelerating or catabolic one and I doubt that the world has much in the way of resources to spend much time in that slow part of the collapse. We have become globally corporate and when the ticky tacky starts coming out there, the feedback of self destruction will be something to tell your grandkids about.
So in the time before things get cooking, do the preparations you think necessary to look after yourself, family and friends. When the lights go out they will essentially go out for everyone rich and poor alike.
If you wish for a better world start making up the stories that will become the myth that will seed that future.
Remember it is always darkest before a catabolic collapse:)
-------
If there is no Devil, then why do we dance with him?
Souperman, I agree that on average the rich will get richer in this process, because they 1)work full-time at gaming the financial system while the rest of us are busy doing something productive, and 2)have the capital to make those big bets.
That said, I don't think that the whole financial system has been master-planned with any objective other than 1) make a lot of money in this quarter (that's the business community), and get re-elected in a year or two (that's the politicians). It's exactly this short-term approach to everything in life that leads us to slap a quick fix on every problem.
Believe me, everyone wants to keep the growth game going somehow because they are scared to death of how society will respond when the total pie starts shrinking. Even China and Russia know it is in their best interest to support our faith-based currency and will do what they can (without destroying their own economies) to keep the global game going. Oh, I should add the Saudis to that list; the royal family has "nice work if you can get it" and will be as opaque as possible about depletion in order to keep that faith in growth going as long as possible.
You and I know the longer this party goes on the worse the hangover will be; but I believe the world community knows in their heart of hearts this is the last party for a good long while and they don't want to stop.
I think all of us on TOD are lucky because we know to head for the exits before it becomes a stampede. You want to know "what is really going down"? Here are a few things I am pretty sure of:
Take Ben Bernanke at his word: he will do everything in his power to prevent a general deflation. While nothing in life is certain, I believe he will suceed. That's not to say there won't be big loss of "halucinated wealth" in CDOs and physical real estate, but Bernanke has been preparing for his entire life to save America from a general deflation; he will not run away from the battle he has been preparing for so long.
People will remain in denial as long as they can. Business and politics will continue to have a tragicly short-term approach to everything. Most of the public in the industrialized world intends to go off the cliff full speed ahead. Maybe they're smarter than me: if I end up being a early participant in the die-off I would have been better off blowing my money on a Bentley and a bunch of cruises.
I hope this helps.
Errol in Miami
I'm sorry but I can not believe that TPTB, that includes China, Russia, etc. don't have a complete understanding of the situation i.e. CC, PO, population, basically the limits of exponential growth with finite resources.
...as to their plans... well I don't know what to think for sure but I don't think it will go as planned.
Hey Soupie, don't you read the Oil Drum? There are Editors, Contibutors, and commentors there that think that we can mitigate our way through this and be able to drive after PO in electric Maseratis, to a favourite Starbucks for a quick latte,. Well sometimes, maybe in their deeper darker moments they will admit to the possibility of arriving by Allan's electric train instead.
Now if they are able to hold those ideas and still look PO CC and Population in the eyes isn't it possible for TPTB to be able to do similar tricks with their eyes?
I have to go to bed now to dream of Armageddon, just ate a cheese and onion sarnie.
Hi souperman2,
I had a really interesting discussion recently about the future with my boss (he's a little big wig). My boss is really smart and super connected etc. All will be well I am assured, technology, political maturity, democracy, human rights. We are all on track to a better future. Major challenges will be there but we will overcome them.
Many people who run the show really do believe things will be better than OK. I hope they're right. I think it's a bit like what Don Sailorman said over in today's Drumbeat. They really do want to do well, but will be caught by circumstances and will do bad.
Next time I meet my boss perhaps I'll bring up peak oil specifically. I've broached it with three or four colleagues. Very interesting reactions.