You have forgotten, to name two things, (1) the increase in population requiring heat, and (2) the increase in electricity production, presumably by natural gas generators. Then, we could begin talking about the ongoing demand destruction in industrial usage...Peak NG isn't going to be mild at all.

Actually, reducing ones NG consumption by 5% year over year is not that easy, but it is still better than having to reduce it by 7%. To me it looks like the NG generator scenario is basically a non-starter. Utilities which continue to lock themselves into that hell-hole probably belong there. I feel sorry for their customers, already. On the other hand, enormously rising electricity price for areas which are suffering from such mismanagement will fuel adoption of wind and solar energy which will become far more competitive just when NG prices will go through the roof, again.

yes, those clever suburbanites they have figured out how to insulate a home. but then they build a 4000 sf vinyl sided mcmansion(far from work so they can drive the suv's in a rat race up and down the freeway to nowhere - two income "family" i might add) but they have better schools and better parenting out there in the wasteland.